Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Langley Township Council Public Hearing Report - Monday Night, May 12, 2008

Notes from Langley Township Council's public hearing, Monday night, May 12, 2008.

After hearing one submission (from the proponent), Council voted unanimously to issue a development permit for 70 townhouses at 70th and 208th (moved by Bateman, seconded by Fox).

Council then heard from the public five six rezoning applications. Under Community Charter provincial law, I am not allowed to comment on the following applications, away from the Council table, until after final reading. All of these projects will come back to Council for a vote on third reading on May 26:

- An application to rezone 0.5 acres at 7211 202A St. for four single-family lots received no speakers.
- An application to rezone property at 9938 201 St. to service industrial for a 16,196 sq. ft. industrial building received no speakers.
- An application to rezone 10.69 acres at 21115 and 21165 77A Ave. for 75 single family homes and 28 rowhouses received six submissions from the public.
- An application to rezone 5.02 acres at 205th and 80th for 28 single family homes and 18 rowhouses received no submissions.
- An application to rezone 2.45 acres at 20511 80 Ave. for 11 single family homes and 13 attached units received no submissions.
- An application to rezone a home at 26976 28A Ave. for a group children day care centre received 11 submissions (along with a stack of letters).

Monday, May 12, 2008

Aldergrove Sewer Line Answers

The following has been sent out to folks living along Robertson Crescent, where the Township is looking to put a desperately-needed sewer line to connect Aldergrove to Metro Vancouver. I thought you might find it informative:

As you may be aware, the Township of Langley is moving ahead with a proposal to connect the East Langley sewage system – which services Aldergrove and Gloucester Industrial Estates – to the Metro Vancouver regional sewage system. The current connection to Abbotsford is undersized and poses a risk to the environment if an alternate connection is not built soon.

The connection to the Metro Vancouver regional sewage system is proposed to generally follow Robertson Crescent to Murrayville. The following "Questions and Answers" are intended to clarify why the sewer is being routed as such and to provide you with a better understanding of when and how this work will take place.

Q: Why is the sewer going down Robertson Crescent and not Fraser Highway?
A: Robertson Crescent was once a rail line and, as such, has a very flat grade. In comparison, Fraser Highway is much higher, with an elevation difference of nearly 20 metres over Robertson Crescent, which would mean the need for more pumping. This flat grade on Robertson Crescent also means more properties will be able to connect to the sewer by gravity. Using the flatter Robertson Crescent with less pumping will reduce the line's operating costs over the years to come and also means the production of a smaller carbon footprint over time. The Township would like this project to be as cost-effective and environmentally friendly as possible, for the benefit of all.

Q: Why hasn't there been a public open house?
A: A report was brought to Township Council on April 14, 2008. A public open house will be held once the detailed design of the sewer is near completion – at that time we'll be able to provide better information about the exact location of the sewer, the construction schedule, and the process for connecting to the sewer.

Q: When is the sewer expected to be built?
A: We expect construction to occur in 2009. In addition to a public open house, affected residents will be individually notified well in advance of the work commencing. It is expected that construction along Robertson Crescent between 264 Street and 240 Street will take approximately four months to complete.

Q: Does this mean that Robertson Crescent will become a major bypass highway?
A: No. There no are plans to widen Robertson Crescent. The road will be restored to as good as or better than its current condition.

Q: Will the sewer lead to development along Robertson Crescent?
A: The construction of the sewer is not linked to any development or neighbourhood plans. The primary purpose of the sewer is to provide much-needed service for the residents of Aldergrove and Gloucester Industrial Estates. Residents along the sewer alignment who are located within Metro Vancouver's Fraser Sewerage Area will also have the opportunity to connect to the sewer if they wish.

Q: Are there any fish or wild habitat issues?
A: As the sewer is expected to be generally located within the road cross-section, it should not have a significant impact on habitat. An environmental consultant has reviewed the fish and wildlife habitat along the Robertson corridor and will be recommending construction methods and timing to minimize any impacts. The project will also be subject to approval from senior environmental agencies, including the federal Department of Fisheries.

Q: Do we really need to build the sewer now?
A: The current sewer connection from East Langley into Abbotsford is undersized and poses a risk to the environment if it's not addressed soon. The sewer is being designed to provide a cost-efficient and effective service to Langley residents, and is expected to be in service for upwards of 50 years.

Langley Township Council Report - Monday Afternoon, May 12, 2008

Notes from Langley Township Council's meeting, Monday afternoon, May 12, 2008.

Council received (moved by Fox, seconded by Ward; passed unanimously) the fire department's annual report for 2007. We presently have 138 paid-call firefighters and 54 career personnel. Our average paid-call response time was 10 minutes, 31 seconds from receipt of the call to arrival on scene. The fulltimers averaged 7:42. In 2007, the department responded to 4,074 requests for assistance, up 4.5% in 2006.

We received a letter from the Spirit of BC Committee announcing that they have moved out of the Township offices to a new office at #101 - 20611 Fraser Hwy. in order to accommodate more staff.

A petition was received from the Langley Seniors Village requesting a sidewalk to be run from their facility at 20363 65th Ave. to the corner of 203/65. We referred this to staff to see what we can do (moved by Vickberg, seconded by Richter).

A motion to fund (up to $10,000 from Council contingency) an Aldergrove Youth Academy this summer passed unanimously (moved by Kositsky, seconded by Fox). The Academy will be a 15-hour program given to 60 kids, having them interact with the RCMP, learn about personal wellness and health, and promote awareness of youth issues. The program had applied for a provincial grant but was turned down.

At this point, Coun. Kositsky left the meeting.

A Coun. Richter motion to hold an open house on the Aldergrove sewer line alignment was seconded by Coun. Long, and then amended. The open house will happen when the detailed design nears completion (amendment moved by Long, seconded by Ferguson; amendment passed 7-1 with Richter opposed. The motion, as amended, passed unanimously).

A Coun. Richter motion to inform the Agricultural Land Commission and the Department of Fisheries and Oceans of our concern about a soil deposit application at 205 and 411 256th St. passed unanimously (seconded by Long).

A third Coun. Richter motion, this one to hold a roundtable meeting with VALTAC, South Fraser OnTrax, and other transit lobby groups, was referred to the Mayor (referral moved by Fox, seconded by Bateman; passed unanimously). Mayor Alberts will meet with representatives from the two groups to work out a meeting structure. I raised the concern that a meeting, without a proper agenda and some sort of understanding of who should be there, would be unwieldy and ultimately pointless. Off the top of my head, there's TransLink, Ministry of Transportation, South Fraser OnTrax, VALTAC, Rail for the Valley, SPEC, Fraser Valley Heritage Rail, the Abbotsford Inter-Regional Committee, the Bus Riders' Union... well, you get the point. Hopefully, the Mayor and the groups can put together a format that will work.

A Coun. Fox motion to have staff report to us on the steps necessary to connect Fraser Hwy. businesses to the Aldergrove sewer line passed unanimously (seconded by Bateman; passed unanimously after an amendment to remove some superfluous wording).

Another Coun. Fox motion, this one to write various levels of government in support of replacing the New Westminster Rail Bridge, passed unanimously (seconded by Bateman). That bridge is 102 years old, and a huge bottleneck for rail traffic. It's also been identified by the Greater Vancouver Gateway Council as their #1 priority.

Township News Notes

As I sit here waiting for Council to begin, I thought I'd pass on a few news items:

- An information session for people living along creeks in Walnut Grove will be held Sunday, June 1, from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the Walnut Grove Community Centre. It's a chance to learn about local erosion concerns and slope issues.

- Congrats to the BumbleBeez of Gordon Greenwood Elementary School who won the annual Fraser Valley Regional Library Reading Link Grand Challenge.

Clinton to Win Big in WV

CNN reports that Hillary Clinton is poised for huge wins in West Virginia and Kentucky. Polls show her uo by 34 points in WV and 27 in Kentucky.

Tories and NDPers Laugh Off Garth Turner

And not for the first time!

Liberal MP Garth Turner floats a conspiracy theory in the Hill Times today that the Liberals will burst into popularity this summer, forcing the Tories to prorogue Parliament in the fall in order to stave off an election until 2009.

The response from other Parliamentarians?
"Why didn't I think of that? I don't know anything about what you are talking about," said Chief Government Whip Jay Hill (Prince George-Peace River, B.C.).

Conservative MP Rob Merrifield (Yellowhead, Alta.) also offered a similar reaction."They [Liberals] know more than I do, that's interesting. If the opposition wants an election, take us down on a budget bill."

NDP MP Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh, Ont.) said that there's some merit to Mr. Turner's theory, adding that it's being discussed within Parliament Hill circles. At the same time, Mr. Comartin said it could also be described as "speculation," and disagreed with Mr. Turner that the Liberals could gain momentum in the coming months and as result of Mr. Dion's national tour.

"The Liberals are suffering from some significant hopeful delusions in that analysis. The Liberals are not going to be in any kind of an ascendancy by the fall. They're in such terrible shape organizationally in Quebec that it will take longer than three or four months to rebuild," said Mr. Comartin.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Claude Richmond Is Done

This one is a surprise, as he had said repeatedly that he wanted to run one more time: Claude Richmond has announced he will not seek re-election. Richmond is 72 years old, but he had been adamant that he wanted another term. Apparently a health issue has convinced him there are more important things than Victoria at this point in his life.

The rumour around Kamloops is that Mayor Terry Lake may be thinking about seeking Richmond's BC Liberal nomination.

Meanwhile, the Vancouver Sun notes that Gordon Campbell is busy recruiting "high-profile" candidates for the next election:
Already, Campbell has recruited former B.C. Cancer Foundation president Mary McNeil to run in Vancouver-False Creek and B.C. Paraplegic Association marketing director Stephanie Cadieux in Surrey-Panorama.

In Taylor's Vancouver-Langara riding, Campbell has pulled in Dr. Moira Stilwell, who heads the nuclear medicine program at St. Paul's and Surrey Memorial hospitals.

High-profile? I follow Surrey news and politics pretty closely, and frankly I had never heard of Cadieux before she decided to run for office.

Fraser Institute Grades Secondary Schools

The Fraser Institute released their 2008 scores of local high schools yesterday (the elementary results came out last week).

Here are the Langley schools scores (out of 10), and their provincial rankings (out of 298 schools):

Langley Fine Arts 8.3 (27)
RE Mountain 7.6 (53)
DW Poppy 7.3 (71)
Langley Christian 7.2 (82)
Credo 7.1 (90)
Walnut Grove 6.8 (115)
Brookswood 5.8 (196)
Langley 5.4 (217)
Aldergrove 4.2 (267)
HD Stafford 4.0 (272)
Fraser Valley Adventist 3.7 (278)

Friday, May 09, 2008

What To Do This Week

Here is this week's Tourism Langley Fresh Sheet of activities.

24 Hours Highlights My 200th Streetcar Plan

My thanks to 24 Hours newspaper columnist Ian King for covering my 200th Streetcar plan. From Ian's article:
There's a stereotype in Vancouver of Fraser Valley residents as little more than a mass of blinkered, sprawl-loving, SUV-driving, blacktop-laying car nuts.

Not so. In fact, advocates from south of the Fraser - from all parts of the political spectrum - are pushing transit expansion far more aggressively than anything you'll find on TransLink's website or in a provincial government plan.

(clip)

You wouldn't expect a strong proponent of twinning the Port Mann Bridge to call for a streetcar to provide unheard-of levels of transit service in Langley. Langley Township councillor Jordan Bateman wants both.

Langley, explains Bateman, is at a crossroads. The next round of development could mean another swath of car-oriented suburbia - if regional leaders let it happen.

But it's not inevitable. The Langleys' centres of population and commerce are realigning, and with that comes the opportunity to pursue transit-oriented development.

"Langley was oriented east-west, along the Interurban, Fraser Highway, Old Yale. Now, the population runs north-south."

Enter, then, the idea of building some form of light rail along 200th Street from Willowbrook north to the job-rich Port Kells area, with expansion to Willoughby and Fernridge as those two areas become the last major developments in the township.

Bateman's calling it a streetcar; the actual technology might be light rail, but he's willing to leave that to technical experts. What it would be is surface rail with a moderate capacity - and a much more modest cost than the planned SkyTrain extension to 168th Street and Fraser Highway in Surrey.

"There's the [provincial government's] plan to extend SkyTrain to Guildford, and that's great, but the fact is that SkyTrain is four times as expensive to build as light rail, meaning you can get four times as much light rail for the same amount of money," says Bateman.

Monday night's Township debate on my Interurban motion is covered in both the Times and the Advance today.

South Fraser OnTrax has posted a recording of their inaugural meeting here.

I also see that my 200th powerpoint presentation is closing in on 900 views since being posted last week. In case you haven't seen it, here it is again:

The Week's Best Late-Night Jokes

About.com has their regular list of the week's political jokes. My favorite is from Conan O'Brien: "Hillary Clinton says she isn't dropping out because there are still six states that haven't had their Democratic primary. That's right. Barack Obama's favored in the states of Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, and Hillary is favored in the state of denial."

Friday Morning News

More on the Public Safety Inspection Team investigation. (Langley Times)

The Township is in a good position to attract more sports tourism in the coming years. (Langley Times)

More on the recent trails forum. (Langley Times)

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Thursday News Notes

Police are investigating a member of the Township's Public Safety Inspection Team for taking a flashlight, says the Province. Again, it would be inappropriate for me to comment until the RCMP are done their investigation.

Aldergrove Star editor Kurt Langmann disagrees with Bob Long's assessment that downtown Aldergrove is a ghost town.

BC Liberal Candidate News

Public Eye has a couple of posts on possible BC Liberal candidates. Apparently the mayor of Colwood is thinking of running provincially, as is Arthur Griffiths.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

PSIT Put On Hold

It would be completely inappropriate for me to comment on this while the RCMP are looking into it, but I note that our Public Safety Inspection Team has been shut down while police investigate one of its members. News stories can be found here and here.

Finally, Some Livable Region Plan Details

Metro Vancouver continues its work on a new Livable Region Strategic Plan. Today's Surrey Leader has some interesting details. Central City in Surrey will be listed as the region's second downtown, but of more significant interest to Langley:
The other regional town centres in Burnaby, Richmond, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge and Langley City remain the same and will now be known as regional city centres.

But the 12 smaller designated municipal town centres – which include areas like Ladner, Port Moody, Guildford, White Rock and Aldergrove – are slated to grow to 16, with additions recognizing Surrey's Cloverdale area, Lynn Valley in North Vancouver, South Vancouver near 49th and Main, and northwest Langley Township near the 200 Street corridor.

The urban centres are to be the focus for jobs, services and high-density housing.

But in addition to those areas, the plan calls for heavy growth in Surrey, Vancouver, Coquitlam and Langley Township.

That's where most of the region's "priority development areas" are to be designated, mostly along corridors planned for frequent transit.

Gone is the old concept of "growth concentration areas" that the former Livable Region Strategic Plan set to focus high-density growth.

Much of the changes are being driven by the province's recently unveiled vision for transit expansion. Metro's new plan will assume ramped up transit in traditionally underserved eastern areas of Metro Vancouver.

Defending The Suburbs

In the face of a new round of City-dwellers bashing the suburbs, Sun columnist Pete McMartin defends the rights of the hundreds of thousands of us who live in one:
But suburbs aren't adjuncts to urban cores, anymore: they have their own dynamics and interests to protect. And in a world of An Inconvenient Truth, the inconvenient truth about suburbs, at least in the Lower Mainland, is:

They not only constitute the majority of inhabited land, they will soon constitute the majority of the population. While Sam Sullivan's vaunted (and much covered) EcoDensity initiative hopes to squeeze a measly 70,000 people inside city limits, suburbs south of the Fraser, the Tri-Cities area and Langley in the next 15 years will quietly outstrip Vancouver's population growth by a factor of seven.

A social engineer might find it easy to muse about uprooting so large a constituency for the good of mankind: a politician, no way. Suburbs, even in a Peak Oil world, will have to be accommodated.

If I were betting on the future, I might bet that suburbs have a better chance at survival than Balfour believes.

I might also think that if the Apocalypse does arrive, the very last place I'd want to be was in a city.

It's Obama

The big win last night in North Carolina, and his better-than-expected showing in Indiana have the chattering classes declaring that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee. The Clinton campaign is now bleeding money--and even worse, superdelegates.

Kinsella Thinks The Next Election Will Be Ugly

Over in The Hill Times, Warren Kinsella says the next federal election will be a nasty affair:
"I think the election will be nasty because the Tories are lacking in options. They can't do the stuff they did in 2006. They can't run an 'outsider' campaign, they're the incumbent. They can't run an ethics campaign, thanks to Mr. Mulroney and the in-and-out mess. And they can't run on the economy, because—while we are in much better shape than the U.S., due to the riches that my friend Chretien left successor governments--we are clearly in or near a recession. So, eliminating all the options leaves you with one: go neg. It worked for the Tories in 2006 after the Liberal leadership, when they swift-boated Mr. Dion on the environment, so they will be mightily tempted to launch a massive air war. And they've certainly got the dough to do it," said Warren Kinsella.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

OnTrax Recaps Council Meeting

South Fraser OnTrax, who are hosting their inaugural meeting Thursday night at the Langley Civic Facility, has a report on last night's Interurban motion on their blog.

Rees Looks At 200th Streetcars

Transportation blogger Stephen Rees has posted my 200th Streetcar slideshow, and made some very favorable comments about the idea. Most importantly, he and Malcolm Johnston have assured me that a streetcar can handle the 200th Street hill:
Do not let the nay sayers scare you about hills. There is a frequently cited myth here that LRT cannot climb more than a 6% grade. Twaddle. Ancient old streetcars climb steep hills in Lisbon every day... It is just a question of power - and sand for wet days. I think trams on 200 Street are a brilliant way to start to make Langley more urban and less gasoline dependant!(Rees)

The industry standard for streetcars climbing grades is now 8%, which means a streetcar, carrying a maximum capacity, but be able to stop and start at that grade. In Sheffield, their 3 section articulated cars are able to climb 10% grades (all axles motorized)and their steepest station is on a 9% grade; and in Lisbon, their venerable streetcars climb 13.7% grades on one of their routes. I believe Vancouver streetcars climbed 10% grades on Alma and Montreal had 14% grades on their tram system. With wheel anti-slip controls and automatic sanding, streetcars/LRT can climb almost any grade in the region. 200th street would be dead easy. (Johnston)


Here's the 200th slideshow:

Langley Township Council Report--Monday Afternoon Meeting, May 5, 2008

Notes from Langley Township Council's afternoon meeting on Monday, May 5, 2008.

South Langley resident Margaret Ormston asked Council to do what we can to stop a soil deposit permit application at 411 256th St. I think Council shared Margaret's frustrations with the way the senior levels of government manage soil deposits--they look at the impact on agriculture and fish, but not on neighbours. Under provincial law, the Township cannot prohibit soil deposits, we can only regulate them. That being said, we are hopeful the Department of Fisheries and Oceans will stop this permit as it is near the banks of the Bertrand Creek, and proposed to go on top of a tributary stream. Later in the meeting, Councillor Richter gave notice of a motion that would have the Township send a letter to the Agricultural Land Commission and DFO, asking them to reject this application.

Representatives from two transportation groups--Sonya Paterson of VALTAC and Joe Zaccaria of South Fraser OnTrax spoke in favour of my notice of motion to do an Interurban route and ridership study.

Staff gave us a presentation on the new lacrosse/hockey box covered arena at McLeod Athletic Park. The facility was co-funded by the Township and the Provincial Government, through a School Board grant.

Council received a report on the 2006 census. Of interest to me is the fact that the Township is very close to meeting its goal of having one job for every person in our workforce. We're at 0.965 to 1 right now, and we expect to be at 1 to 1 in 2010. The census also broke down our population by generation:
5,180 residents aged 0-5 (up 1.9% from 2001)
20,385 residents aged 6-19 (down 1.7% from 2001)
22,380 residents aged 20-39 (up 2.8% from 2001)
29,680 residents aged 40-59 (up 12.6% from 2001)
16,090 residents aged 60 plus (up 24.3% from 2001)

Council voted unanimously (moved by Fox, seconded by Ward) to forgo a full botanical garden at the Derek Doubleday Wetland Arboretum in favour of a much cheaper, and more appropriate, natural site. A powerpoint presentation on this can be seen here:



Essentially, the study endorses the model the Township has been pursuing for the Wetland Arboretum--a not-for-profit society charged with maintaining a site with trails and some observation decks. We would have invested roughly the same amount of money in the site either way, but a society will help us generate volunteer hour and grant dollars.

We voted unanimously (moved by Vickberg, seconded by Ward) to endorse the recommendation of the Spirit Square Statue Task Force and pursue a statue in the Salish house post style for River Road and Mavis Ave.

Council voted unanimously (moved by Bateman, seconded by Fox) to replace a 65-year-old sewer line at 204th St. under Hwy. 1 after it failed due to old age. Sewage is currently being rerouted through the 201 line. The cost will be $440,000--$300,000 of which will come out of Development Cost Charges.

We voted unanimously to rejig the Sport Langley Advisory Committee's terms of reference, moving it to an annual AGM, with the option of event-specific task forces (moved by Vickberg, seconded by Ward). Council made an amendment (moved by Vickberg, seconded by Fox; passed unanimously) to the report in order to add Bedford Channel to the list of event venues.

Council unanimously accepted a request from the Langley Agricultural Advisory Committee to meet this month (moved by Ferguson, seconded by Fox).

Council voted 5-4 to defeat a motion by Councillor Long (seconded by Richter; Bateman, Fox, Vickberg, Ward and Alberts opposed) to spend $15,000 and staff time on hosting a BC Day concert at McLeod Athletic Park.

It took a lot of debate and an amendment, but Council passed my Interurban ridership and route study unanimously (original motion moved by Bateman, seconded by Fox). These actions come out of the UMA high-level review of community rail service in Langley. These are their suggestions as we pursue the ultimate goal of reviving Interurban service south of the Fraser.

A route and ridership review are key elements to getting this thing moving. We need information, hard facts, about how many people will use this service. These numbers can then be presented to TransLink for their review, hopefully prompting them to put in the service.

Groups like VALTAC, the Fraser Valley Heritage Rail Society, and South Fraser OnTrax have been working toward this goal. They have done an admirable job of engaging the public, and educating the politicians. Now it's our turn to step up to the plate and take the next step. I saw nothing in the UMA review that was a deal-killer. Indeed, the president of Southern Railway seems keen in the local press to look at passenger rail on their portion of the old Interurban route.

My original motion was to pursue these measures, and offer other municipalities and levels of government the opportunity to participate in both research and funding (a report is believed to cost about $100,000). Some members of Council were uncomfortable with the Township making a financial commitment to doing these studies, believing it to be a TransLink or provincial responsibility. Councillor Kositsky made an amendment (seconded by Richter) to change the motion to say "pursue funding from other orders of government and agencies" for this study. The amendment passed 7-2 (Alberts and Fox opposed).

Thinking it over later (and this may shock those of you who think elected official are infallible--wait, none of you think that!), I think supporting that amendment might have been a mistake. I don't think Council showed the kind of leadership we are capable of. We passed the buck on this instead of leading the way on this effort and, yes, putting Langley's money where its mouth is.

The regional landscape has changed. We cannot simply wait for TransLink to see our need and get around to giving us proper transit service. There are too many communities lobbying for too many improvements. The north Fraser is not shy about fighting for what they want. In Port Moody, Mayor Joe Trasolini quit voting for developments until he got his Evergreen Line funded. Coquitlam and Port Moody lobbied long and hard to get the alignment they wanted. They provided hard numbers and political pressure. In Langley City, Mayor Marlene Grinnell made her case, based on hard facts, for the 204th overpass. She fought for that for years and finally got it. We have to stand up for Langley, and fight and scratch for what our residents need. Instead, we are again relying on some outside agency to see enough merit to give us the facts we need.

While I'm having second thoughts regarding the amendment, I do not think this is fatal to the Interurban's chances. It is always possible that the Province could fund the study (Minister Falcon has said he is interested in looking at the line). And if no funding is forthcoming, Council can look at the issue again and spend the money ourselves. It's also possible that Abbotsford and Surrey may express interest and we come up with a funding model among the three of us. I do feel instead of taking a big step forward on the Interurban last night, we settled for a quarter-step. Nonetheless, it was forward progress.

We voted unanimously (referral moved by Bateman, seconded by Ferguson) to refer a Councillor Richter motion to form a south Fraser transit task force to the Livability Accord discussions with Surrey, Abbotsford and Coquitlam.

Keith Richmond Assesses Sonya Paterson's Chances

Over on his blog, School Board watcher Keith Richmond assesses Sonya Paterson's chances of winning re-election.

He misses a few key points: I suspect that Sonya's name recognition is very high for a Trustee (thanks in part to her work with VALTAC), and she has a track record of eking out close-shave wins (less than 75 vote margins in both her election victories). She wins these close ones because she works hard during campaigns.

However, not every School Board voter is a parent. Many voters weigh fiscal responsibility of a Board at least as highly as a child's right to a good education. Some of those people may not look at the decision to make Stafford a middle school in the same way Stafford parents do. And the majority of Stafford parents (certainly the most vocal ones) live in the City and are unable to vote for Trustee Paterson.

It will be interesting, but Sonya works and campaigns hard, and that's a big check-mark in her column. I think she is second only to Steve Burton in name rec. And, of course, a candidate's success depends partially on who else runs.